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China's refined copper consumption is projected to grow steadily over the next decade, supported by long-term industrial and infrastructure demand. A senior researcher from China Minmetals indicated that demand is unlikely to peak soon, with annual growth estimated at 3.7% until 2035. However, growth in the current year is expected to remain muted at around 1% due to slower progress in the energy transition, particularly in solar power, and elevated copper prices. Despite a possible population decline, overall consumption is expected to remain strong due to rising per capita usage and ongoing economic activity.
Refined copper consumption in China, the world's largest metals market, is expected to continue rising over the coming decade, with no immediate signs of demand reaching its peak. A researcher from state-owned China Minmetals shared at an industry conference in Santiago that copper demand could grow at an average annual rate of 3.7% through 2035. Advertisement
The outlook for the current year, however, remains relatively subdued. The company's market research director indicated that demand growth is likely to stay around 1%, mainly due to a slower pace in the global energy transition. This slowdown has been particularly visible in copper-intensive sectors such as solar power, along with the impact of high copper prices on consumption trends.
According to Minmetals base-case scenario, China's copper consumption is projected to reach approximately 22.95 million metric tonnes by 2035, reflecting a total increase of about 43% from nearly 16 million tonnes estimated for 2025. The projection is considered realistic based on current industrial demand patterns and economic assumptions.
The researcher also indicated that if China is able to maintain its copper intensity levels, overall consumption could grow by more than 50% over the next decade. It was further noted that China still has room to increase its per capita copper usage, especially when compared to developed economies, where consumption levels are significantly higher.
The forecast takes into account a projected population of around 1.35 billion by 2035. Despite the possibility of a mild decline in population, it was highlighted that incremental demand for copper is expected to remain substantial, supported by continued urbanisation, infrastructure development, and industrial activity.
China has historically been the largest driver of global copper demand, supported by sectors such as construction, power, electric vehicles, and renewable energy. While short-term fluctuations are influenced by commodity prices and policy shifts, long-term demand has remained structurally strong due to the country's manufacturing base and ongoing infrastructure needs.
Source Reuters
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