Canada's luxury real estate market stabilised in Q3 2024, driven by population growth and lower mortgage rates, despite the economic uncertainties. In the Greater Toronto Area, luxury home sales over USD 4 million grew 9% year-over-year, while condominium sales declined 25%. Vancouver faced a 13% drop in USD 4 million-plus home sales and no luxury condo sales. In contrast, Montreal's USD 1 million-plus market surged 83% in September, while Calgary saw a 31% year-over-year rise in USD 1 million-plus sales, propelled by population growth and strong demand. Private equity and billionaire investments are influencing the broader U.S. housing crisis, further impacting market dynamics.
In the third quarter of 2024, Canada's luxury housing market showed signs of stabilisation, with key factors like population growth and falling mortgage rates helping to offset the effects of a slowing economy and fluctuating consumer confidence. According to Sotheby's International Realty Canada's Fall 2024 "Top-Tier Real Estate" report, this stabilisation has pushed the luxury condominium markets in major cities such as Toronto and Vancouver into buyers' territory, where an oversupply has tempered prices.
In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), luxury real estate transactions above USD 4 million experienced steady growth, with a 3% year-over-year increase between July and August. The sales of single-family homes in this price range were particularly strong, rising by 4%. However, the luxury condominium segment saw a substantial 25% drop in sales compared to the same period last year. September's figures showed a continuation of this trend, with residential sales over USD 4 million rising by 9% compared to the previous year. Yet, the luxury condominium market remained flat, with only one sale recorded, mirroring the same number of transactions from the previous September.
In Vancouver, the luxury market faced more pronounced challenges in Q3 2024. Sales of homes priced over USD 4 million fell by 13% compared to summer 2023, with single-family home sales dropping even further, by 16%. This decline is partly attributed to consumer hesitation ahead of the upcoming provincial election. September data revealed a sharper 52% decrease in USD 4 million-plus home sales, with no luxury condominium sales reported. Furthermore, residential sales over USD 1 million also suffered, falling 31% year-over-year.
In contrast, Montreal's top-tier market performed notably well during Q3 2024. Sales of homes priced above USD 1 million grew by 15% compared to the same period in 2023. Although the market for properties exceeding USD 4 million saw a slight dip, overall momentum remained strong heading into the fall. September data reflected this strength, with an 83% year-over-year surge in USD 1 million-plus residential sales.
Calgary emerged as a standout performer, with its luxury market outpacing other major Canadian cities. Driven by robust population growth and high demand, sales of homes over USD 1 million increased by 31% year-over-year in Q3 2024. This positive trend continued in September, with a 15% rise in sales, including two properties selling for over USD 4 million.
Additionally, billionaire-backed private equity investment has become a significant influence on the U.S. housing crisis, further impacting real estate dynamics.
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