Crisil Ratings reports a stagnation in India's office space leasing at 32-34 million sq ft this fiscal due to global uncertainties. Despite this, the market's strength and a shift towards office work are expected to drive future growth. The slowdown faced by the IT/ITeS sector, a major occupant, is impacting demand. However, resilience in domestic sectors like BFSI, consulting, and e-commerce, is likely to maintain leasing levels. With companies increasingly advocating for physical office presence, a recovery in leasing activity is anticipated in the medium term.
The Indian office space sector is set to encounter stagnation in demand growth during the current fiscal year, primarily due to global economic uncertainties, as per a recent report by Crisil Ratings. Despite this slowdown, the inherent strengths of the Indian market and the increasing trend of returning to office environments are anticipated to bolster demand in the medium term, maintaining the stability of credit profiles for office asset owners. Crisil's analysis reveals that net leasing of commercial office spaces in India is expected to remain steady at 32-34 million square feet. This plateau is attributed to caution exercised by major tenant sectors in response to international economic challenges. However, the report highlights that the unique advantages of the Indian market, coupled with a growing inclination towards physical office work, will likely contribute to a gradual recovery in demand. The IT and IT-enabled services (ITeS) sector, which currently occupies about 42-45% of the operational office space, alongside Global Capability Centres (GCCs) of multinational corporations, encompassing around 30% of the total stock, are crucial to this market. These sectors, however, face headwinds due to global economic conditions. Conversely, demand from domestic enterprises in sectors such as banking, financial services, insurance (BFSI), consulting, engineering, pharmaceuticals, and e-commerce, which occupy the remaining office spaces, is expected to remain robust. This resilience is projected to result in a net leasing volume of 32-34 million square feet for this fiscal year, mirroring the figures from fiscal 2023. Experts at Crisil, anticipate net leasing to grow by 10-12% in the next fiscal to 36-38 million square feet. GCCs will likely lead this demand due to the cost benefits and skilled workforce available in the Indian market. Furthermore, domestic enterprises would also continue to exhibit healthy demand, supported by their strong financial status and growth prospects. The push by employers for increased physical occupancy in offices is another positive factor. Many companies, including those in the technology sector that previously favoured remote working, are now advocating for more office presence. With physical occupancy, which averaged 40% last fiscal, anticipated to reach 65-70% this year, the office leasing sector may witness a significant uplift. In conclusion, while the global economic scenario presents challenges, the Indian office space market demonstrates resilience and potential for growth. The blend of local enterprise strength and gradual shifts in work culture stands to counterbalance the current stagnation and pave the way for recovery in the coming fiscal years.
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